NFL Season Odds Report

Revised as of 11/15/11, through Week 10.
Compiled by Mike Harris
The playoff odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratingsof the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 25,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
Please note that these odds account for past performance and do not adjust for injuries that may affect future performance.
AFC East

Team Rec WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE

NE 6-3 21.5% 11.0 21.5% 29.0% 29.3% 1.4% 3.5% 7.1% 81.1% 50.5% 10.6% 91.7% 32.0%

NYJ 5-4 28.3% 9.7 1.0% 4.1% 6.9% 0.6% 15.8% 21.7% 12.6% 5.1% 37.5% 50.1% -18.9%

BUF 5-4 1.0% 8.4 0.6% 1.9% 3.4% 0.3% 2.6% 6.8% 6.2% 2.5% 9.3% 15.5% -20.4%

MIA 2-7 -7.6% 4.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC North

Team Rec WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE

PIT 7-3 20.9% 11.1 20.6% 14.7% 6.8% 0.2% 31.4% 16.4% 42.3% 35.3% 47.8% 90.1% 22.9%

BAL 6-3 18.8% 10.7 21.2% 15.7% 7.8% 0.5% 26.4% 11.8% 45.1% 36.8% 38.2% 83.3% -5.7%

CIN 6-3 5.6% 9.7 4.9% 4.6% 2.9% 0.1% 15.4% 25.0% 12.5% 9.5% 40.4% 52.9% -20.6%

CLE 3-6 -14.7% 5.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% -0.2%

AFC South

Team Rec WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE

HOU 7-3 33.8% 11.1 29.8% 27.6% 32.2% 4.3% 0.5% 1.3% 93.9% 57.4% 1.8% 95.7% 0.8%

TEN 5-4 6.7% 8.7 0.4% 1.4% 3.7% 0.3% 4.2% 8.6% 5.8% 1.7% 12.9% 18.7% 9.6%

JAC 3-6 -15.0% 6.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%

IND 0-10 -46.3% 1.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC West

Team Rec WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE

OAK 5-4 -7.2% 8.1 0.1% 0.8% 4.8% 45.7% 0.1% 0.4% 51.3% 0.9% 0.5% 51.8% 24.9%

DEN 4-5 -10.3% 6.9 0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 20.4% 0.1% 0.4% 21.8% 0.2% 0.5% 22.3% 12.3%

SD 4-5 -9.9% 6.8 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 19.1% 0.0% 0.2% 19.9% 0.1% 0.3% 20.1% -25.2%

KC 4-5 -19.8% 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.1% 7.1% -11.5%

NFC East

Team Rec WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE

NYG 6-3 21.2% 10.0 0.6% 3.4% 23.8% 32.9% 2.5% 5.7% 60.7% 4.0% 8.2% 68.9% -11.7%

DAL 5-4 14.4% 9.1 0.1% 2.4% 14.6% 19.9% 2.1% 8.2% 37.1% 2.6% 10.3% 47.4% 19.8%

PHI 3-6 7.6% 6.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.4% 2.4% -6.7%

WAS 3-6 -17.8% 5.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% -0.5%

NFC North

Team Rec WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE

GB 9-0 30.6% 13.6 62.9% 28.4% 2.3% 0.2% 5.7% 0.4% 93.7% 91.3% 6.1% 99.9% 0.3%

CHI 6-3 17.6% 10.5 0.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 52.3% 26.5% 2.6% 2.1% 78.8% 81.4% 19.2%

DET 6-3 7.3% 9.8 0.6% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 26.9% 31.7% 3.7% 2.9% 58.6% 62.3% -17.2%

MIN 2-7 -9.4% 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% -0.3%

NFC South

Team Rec WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE

NO 7-3 12.5% 10.5 0.4% 5.6% 41.5% 33.7% 1.8% 4.8% 81.2% 6.0% 6.5% 87.8% 22.8%

ATL 5-4 14.0% 9.3 0.0% 0.6% 8.9% 8.6% 8.2% 20.2% 18.2% 0.6% 28.4% 46.5% -22.0%

TB 4-5 -13.5% 6.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.7% 1.3% -4.4%

CAR 2-7 -14.2% 4.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2%

NFC West

Team Rec WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE

SF 8-1 20.8% 12.7 34.7% 55.9% 7.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 99.9% 90.6% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

SEA 3-6 -12.7% 6.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.4% 1.0%

ARI 3-6 -21.3% 5.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

STL 2-7 -33.4% 4.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team
Reaching the Conference Championship Game

Winning the Conference Championship Game

Winning the Super Bowl

Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win 16-0 15-1

GB 64.5% 38.0% 21.3% 5.0% 19.7%

HOU 51.8% 29.7% 16.8%

SF 61.4% 31.2% 15.5% 5.1%

NE 42.1% 21.6% 10.5%

PIT 34.6% 17.1% 8.1%

BAL 32.8% 16.2% 7.4%

NYG 17.4% 7.9% 3.8%

NYJ 13.7% 6.7% 3.6%

NO 19.0% 7.9% 3.4%

CHI 12.5% 5.3% 2.5%

DAL 9.7% 3.9% 1.8%

CIN 10.7% 4.4% 1.6%

ATL 7.4% 2.9% 1.3%

DET 7.7% 2.8% 1.0%

TEN 3.2% 1.2% 0.4%

OAK 4.9% 1.3% 0.4%

BUF 2.8% 1.0% 0.3%

DEN 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%

SD 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%

PHI 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

SEA 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

KC 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%

TB 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

ON THE CLOCK
This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.

Team #1 Pick Top 3 Pick 0-16 1-15

IND 88.6% 98.8% 10.9% 34.3%

CAR 4.1% 40.1%

STL 2.9% 43.4%

MIA 1.8% 28.9%

MIN 1.2% 23.5%

CLE 0.4% 14.3%

WAS 0.4% 15.5%

ARI 0.3% 11.5%

JAC 0.2% 5.3%

SEA 0.1% 5.2%

PHI 0.1% 3.5%

KC 0.0% 4.4%

TB 0.0% 3.0%

SD 0.0% 1.3%

DEN 0.0% 1.3%

Special Super Bowl Matchups
This report lists the odds of several "special" super bowl matchups.

Matchup Chance

Super Bowl XXXI rematch (NE-GB) 8.2%

Super Bowl XLV rematch (PIT-GB) 6.6%

Harbaugh Bowl (BAL-SF) 5.1%

Super Bowl XLII rematch (NE-NYG) 1.8%

Bill Walsh Memorial Bowl (CIN-SF) 1.4%

Super Bowl XXXV rematch (BAL-NYG) 1.4%

Texas Bowl (HOU-DAL) 1.2%

Super Bowl XX rematch (NE-CHI) 1.1%

Super Bowl XXX rematch (PIT-DAL) 0.7%

Exit 16W Bowl (NYJ-NYG) 0.5%

Bay Area Bowl (OAK-SF) 0.4%

Ryan Bowl (NYJ-DAL) 0.3%

Super Bowl XXXII rematch (DEN-GB) 0.2%

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